RBC: Memory
DRAM Supply & Demand Forecast > Structural Deficit Trend: Sufficiency (measured as supply relative to demand) turns increasingly negative starting in mid-2025 and deepens through 2026, indicating that demand growth consistently outpaces supply expansion.> Peak Tightness: The market hits its most severe structural deficit in 1Q26A, where sufficiency drops to roughly -6.6%.> Volume Expansion: Both DRAM demand and supply scale significantly throughout 2026, with total market volume projected to climb from under 8,000 million GB in early 2024 to over 13,000 million GB by 4Q26E.NAND Supply & Demand Forecast > Transition to Deficit: After experiencing a period of oversupply with positive sufficiency peaking near +6.5% in 1Q25, the NAND market pivots sharply into a structural deficit by late 2025.> Deepest Deficit in Early 2026: Similar to DRAM, the NAND market bottoms out in terms of sufficiency at 1Q26A, reaching a deficit trough of approximately -7.5%.> Volume Scale: Demand and supply volumes steadily recover and expand through the remainder of 2026, approaching 330,000 million GB by 4Q26E.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY $Sandisk(SNDK.US)
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