HSBC: WFE Forecasts
Terafab Impact> WFE Outlook: Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) investments from Terafab might be limited in 2026 and 2027 as they initially focus on building the physical shell of the fab. However, HSBC now models Terafab capex at USD 3bn / 10bn / 20bn for 2026e / 2027e / 2028e respectively, with spending starting to flow into their WFE estimates in 2027.Upgraded WFE Forecasts for 2028> Rising Visibility: Customers of semiconductor capital equipment companies are showing rising visibility into 2028, signaling worries about ongoing supply constraints and pointing to another strong year of growth.> Higher Growth Targets: Bottom-up capex analysis suggests semiconductor company capex will grow by 14% in 2028.> Upgraded WFE Growth: HSBC has significantly raised its 2028 WFE growth forecast to 20% YoY (up from their previous May 2026 estimate of just 5.3% YoY). This outperformance is expected to be driven by direct spending on equipment rather than just clean room shells.$ASML(ASML.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US)
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