Equity research
2026.07.08 17:02

Bernstein: Memory Update

> Mild Monthly Increases, Strong Quarter: Both DRAM and NAND contract prices saw mild month-over-month (MoM) growth in June, but their sequential quarterly performance indicates a massive overall price surge for 2QCY26.

> Deceleration Ahead: The rapid pace of memory price hikes is expected to moderate significantly heading into 3QCY26.

> Long-Term Outlook: Analysts project that memory prices will gradually peak and begin to normalize starting in the second half of CY27 and continuing into CY28 as capacity increases and long-term agreements (LTAs) take full effect.

DRAM Performance

> 2QCY26 Price Surge: Mainstream conventional DRAM contract prices indicated a 74% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase for 2QCY26.

> Spot Market Rebound: DRAM spot prices stabilized and climbed in June. PC DRAM spot prices rose by 5.6% to 11.5% MoM, while Server DRAM modules rose 6.1% to 26.4% MoM (driven by particularly strong demand for Server DDR5).

> Supply & LTAs: Server demand continues to comfortably absorb incremental supply. On LTAs, suppliers have largely concluded negotiations with US Cloud Service Providers (CSPs). TrendForce noted Micron's LTA price ceiling is near its 2Q level due to preferred longer durations, while Samsung and SK hynix may see higher ceilings.

NAND Performance

> Blended Price Growth: The overall blended NAND contract price for 2QCY26 is expected to rise by ~60% QoQ, heavily supported by a 70–80% price spike in Mobile NAND (eMMC/UFS) and SSDs.

> Wafer Slowdown: NAND wafer contract prices grew only moderately (0.3% to 3.7% MoM) in June. Meanwhile, NAND wafer spot prices actually dropped 3–4% as module houses grew cautious of elevated pricing.

> 3QCY26 Slowdown: Mobile NAND and SSD contract price growth is expected to cool off dramatically to just 5–10% QoQ in 3QCY26 due to anticipated demand destruction as smartphone OEMs pass memory costs down to consumers.

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