Jefferies: AI Crescendo
> Massive Spending Forecasts: The four major US hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft) are expected to spend roughly US$700bn in capex this year and over US$800bn next year.> Macro Impact: If you include Oracle, Anthropic, OpenAI, and neo-clouds, total capex is estimated to surpass US$1tn next year—equivalent to roughly 3% of US GDP and 33% of total pre-tax profits for all US non-financial companies.> Cash Flow Strain: This aggressive spending is rapidly eating into cash flows; capex as a percentage of operating cash flow for the four major hyperscalers is projected to skyrocket to 92% in 2026, up from 41% in 2023.> Bond Issuance: The four major US hyperscalers have issued US$144bn worth of bonds so far this year, compared with US$83bn in 2025 , according to Bloomberg. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta issued US$52bn, US$67bn and US$25bn in 1H26, while Microsoft has not yet issued any bonds. In addition, Oracle has also issued US$25bn of bonds year-to-date.> Memory Dominance: There are now only three dominant suppliers of DRAMs globally, compared with 12 prior to 2012, with an estimated market share of 89%. > AI Driving US GDP: The US economy is highly dependent on this trend; real AI-related capex alone contributed 1.13 percentage points (or 42%) to the US real GDP growth of 2.68% YoY in 1Q26.
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