The overall trend of the U.S. stock market today is: "a corrective rebound after intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market is digesting the hawkish pivot of the new Fed Chair, while tech stocks lead gains driven by geopolitical easing and major company news."

If you are observing the intraday movements of the three major indices, after experiencing a volume-driven sell-off with over 1% declines across the board last night (17th), the three major futures indices today, both pre-market and at the open, showed clear signs of a retaliatory rebound, especially Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures, which rebounded up to 0.8% - 1.3% intraday.

We can review today's major trend from three dimensions: macro fundamentals, technical structure, and capital flow dynamics.

Macro Fundamentals: The New Chair's "Clear Hawkish Stance" vs. Geopolitical Tailwinds

The Fed signals hawkishness: In his first policy meeting after taking office, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, while keeping rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, abandoned the traditional "forward guidance," emphasizing a complete shift to "data dependence." More crucially, the dot plot shows that 9 officials expect at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026. This unexpectedly hawkish "unannounced shift in tone" led to a late-session sell-off in U.S. stocks last night, with the three major indices falling sharply.

Geopolitics and Major Company News: Market sentiment recovered rapidly pre-market today, primarily for two reasons: first, the U.S. and Iran signed a phased peace agreement, causing international oil prices to plunge over 2%, alleviating market concerns about runaway inflation and easing pressure on the Fed's rate hike expectations; second, there were significant rumors in the tech sector, with former President Trump's comments about "Intel and Apple potentially reaching some form of cooperation" spurring a pre-market surge in Intel, directly igniting bullish enthusiasm across the semiconductor and tech sectors.

Technical Trend: Intensified High-Level Volatility, Testing Daily Moving Average Support

From a longer-term medium-term structure, the market is currently not in a smooth one-sided bull market, but rather in a "profit-taking at high levels, with amplified volatility in phases" consolidation phase:

S&P 500 / Nasdaq: Broke below the 20-day EMA last night, with the daily MACD indicator showing a clear bearish crossover above the zero line, and the RSI also moving away from the overbought zone towards the 50 equilibrium line. Although there was a rebound today, it is typical of a "deep decline rebound," and whether the trading volume can expand effectively is key. If the S&P cannot quickly recover yesterday's losses, the daily chart may evolve into a small double top or form a right shoulder in a consolidation pattern.

Fear Index: The VIX surged over 12% to 18.44 yesterday. Although it retreated somewhat today, its overall absolute value has moved away from the single-digit "absolute safety zone" of the past few months, indicating that market risk aversion has not completely dissipated.

Sector and Capital Flow Dynamics: Beta Tech Stocks Recover, Heavyweight Stocks Provide Support

Tech and Semiconductors Lead Gains: Besides Intel being driven by news, high-beta semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and Micron attracted significant short-term bottom-fishing capital intraday after yesterday's broad sell-off. The long-term fundamental logic of AI computing power and hardware remains the market's strongest card.

Traditional Sectors Diverge: Due to oil prices falling below $78, the energy sector faced pressure overall today; meanwhile, banking and major financial sectors benefited from expectations that the Fed may maintain high rates for an extended period, showing strong defensive resilience.