Paradis Macro Report [June 17]:
FOMC Summary & AI Trade Impact (2 min read):1. Rates held at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected.2. But the next move could be to raise rates due to rising inflation driven by energy prices (Iran war).3. Hawkish surprise with 9/18 participants penciling in one hike later this year (was 0 participants in March) w/ median dot at 3.8% (2026) and 3.6% (2027).4. Five new "task forces" launched to overhaul Fed: comms, balance sheet, data, productivity/labour and inflation. 5. Forward guidance scrapped = Less public information on Fed outlook = More volatile market.-> AI Trade Impact:In theory: Less guidance + higher implied volatility = structural headwind to multiples.But, we all know that the AI trade defies logic.So for now, the AI capex narrative is trading on its own unique fundamentals...less sensitive to rates/broader macro.
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