$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) recently had a piece of negative news that I believe will have no substantial impact. On 06/11, the company announced a CFO transition: the current CFO Willem Meintjes will step down. The latest update on 06/15: Meintjes filed Form 144, planning to sell approximately 207,000 shares (nearly 48% of his holdings), amounting to about $60.1M.
Compared to $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US)'s daily trading volume of tens of millions of shares, 200,000 shares are truly insignificant, and I believe it will not affect the stock price at all.The top-left chart shows the two-year implied volatility trend. After the last earnings report, volatility returned to the baseline, with only a very brief dip before immediately rising back near the earnings peak. However, it cannot be said that it did not fall back to the baseline, because since last December, the volatility baseline has risen significantly, especially after mid-March, the baseline seems to have risen parabolically along with the stock price.Perhaps the current volatility has already returned to the baseline, but the baseline itself has now risen to a height of 100%.The top-right chart shows the two-year Put/Call volatility skew. Before the most recent earnings report, there was also a trend of active bullish bets. Although after the earnings report, the volatility skew oscillated with the high stock price and has returned near the zero line, and the bullish momentum has largely dissipated.Looking at the bottom-left chart, this is the short-term Put/Call volatility skew trend. From the active bullish bets in early June, it once turned back to buying put options due to the sharp stock price drop. Now it is gradually tilting back towards call options.The bottom-right chart is the options open interest change chart. Recently, there have been over 20,000 new call options, and slightly further out (dte=67 days), there have also been 3,000 new in-the-money call options. These new options are mainly buy-side, indicating active bullish sentiment among market participants.Summary: Volatility remains on a steeply rising parabolic trajectory, and market participants' bullish stance is evident. In such a trading environment, I would not be surprised if a sudden surge occurs later.
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