Gary Black Tracker
2026.04.15 09:37

Highlights of today’s pre-mkt summary: Stocks wavered pre-market as President Trump signaled the Iran war is “close to over,” with peace talks potentially restarting in the next two days, supporting optimism after nine straight days of Nasdaq gains and stabilizing energy prices. 10-year Treasury yields inched higher, gold and silver fell modestly, and Bitcoin paused. $ASML(ASML.US) rose 0.4% after posting in-line FY’26 revenue guidance, while Hermes (-9%) and Kering (-10%) dropped on softening luxury demand amid the conflict. Banks and brokers reported solid earnings. Netflix reports after the close tomorrow. I continue to expect equities to reclaim new highs once the conflict ends, oil retreats, and slower employment growth boosts Fed rate-cut odds. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $324 (+17% YoY), implying a 21.5x P/E, which translates to a 4.7% earnings yield vs 4.3% 10yrTY, a premium in line with historical norms. I remain cautious on TSLA due to declining long-term estimates, rising competition in unsupervised autonomy, and potential near term weakness from the pending SpaceX IPO.

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