ASML exited 4Q25 with €38.8B in backlog, covering 6+ quarters at trailing 4Q average system revenue. A meaningful step down from the 8-14Q coverage seen during the 2022 shortage peak. The current backlog is healthier though and not driven by stockpiling like '22 peak.TSMC's trailing 4 quarter capex at $41B and growing while ASML book-to-bill just crossed back above 1.0x. If the historical pattern repeats, ASML b2b should continue rising for 2-3 more quarters. Unlike the 4Q23 spike (driven by China), the 4Q25 jump looks more durable because it's EUV-dominated and memory-driven, which implies multi-year strength.Source: Sravan Kundojjala