Expect more equities and oil price volatility tomo

Expect more equities and oil price volatility tomorrow following the collapse of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran after 21 hours of negotiations in Pakistan this weekend.

The two sides left Pakistan with no resolution to contentious issues like Iran’s nuclear program or its control of the Strait of Hormuz. It was always unlikely that they’d reach a breakthrough in a single day after their highest level meeting in nearly 50 years. But by early Sunday morning, it was clear they weren’t much closer to resolving a war that’s killed thousands and roiled global energy markets.

As Vance delivered his verdict in Islamabad — “they have chosen not to accept our terms” — President Trump was in Miami, ringside at an Ultimate Fighting Championship match, where he was joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the 1990s rapper Vanilla Ice.

Vance said the team had updated Trump up to a dozen times during the day, and the president delivered his take shortly before 9 a.m. Washington time on Sunday. In a Truth Social post, he said Iran’s team was “very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”

While the fragile ceasefire was holding, the differences remained stark. The Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas flows, remained largely shut. Israel and Hezbollah were still exchanging fire in Lebanon — a ceasefire there is a key Iranian demand – and Lebanon’s prime minister on Saturday night would announce the postponement of his own trip to Washington.

Washington was demanding a full reopening of Hormuz, which emerged as the key sticking point, and curbs on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Tehran was pushing for sanctions relief, a continued grip on the waterway and a broader rollback of US military presence in the Middle East.

The talks’ collapse left the ceasefire from last week in limbo. Iran’s semi-official media cited US demands “excessive,” while the Iran foreign ministry said it was natural that differences wouldn’t be resolved in a single round of talks, leaving the door open for more discussions.

Trump said on Truth Social this morning that Iran’s demands for tolls to ensure safe passage is “WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted.”

Trump also announced an immediate U.S. naval blockade of ships entering or leaving the strait, plans to destroy Iranian-laid mines, and warnings against any further Iranian attacks.