amit
2026.04.02 15:57

If you are wondering why we erased most of the losses from last night, it seems to be on this headline below:

IRAN IS DRAFTING A PROTOCOL WITH OMAN FOR HORMUZ STRAIT TRAFFIC

1. The market is assuming this is bullish because it will have conditions for the Strait to open. Oil prices can go down.

2. This shows a further from of deescalation if Iran is serious about being able to get the foundation ready for the Strait to open.

The problem?

1. No explanation on what the conditions will be. Could be absurd things that aren’t real.

2. No guarantee that NATO countries will have access to the Strait in this new draft.

3. Until the US ends the war, any draft is likely never going to be approved because Iran wants to force the US out before reopening.

Realistically, the pump this morning feels more like a reaction to the over-reaction last night given Trump didn’t deescalate but he also did not say anything new.

It’s just any headline can swing this market up or down which is why it is so, so hard to think you have an idea of directionality. If you went long before Trump’s speech, you got your face ripped off. If you went short after it, you got your face ripped off.

Source: amit

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