$MEITUAN(03690.HK) Meituan Set to Report Q4 & Full-Year 2025 Earnings — All Eyes on Core Local Commerce Pressure

Revenue Outlook

Q4 revenue is expected at RMB 92.1 billion, up ~5% YoY, with full-year revenue around RMB 380 billion — growth slowing amid fierce competition.

Core food delivery orders are projected to grow 7–10%, while Flash Purchase (instant retail) is expected to deliver over 20% growth, helping offset weakness in the in-store, hotel, and travel segments.

New businesses — including Keeta's overseas expansion and community group buying — are forecast to contribute RMB 25–28 billion, though subsidies continue to weigh on gross margin.

Profit Outlook

A full-year net loss of RMB 23.3–24.3 billion is expected, swinging from profit to loss. The core local commerce segment is estimated to post an operating loss of RMB 6.8–7.0 billion, driven by a sharp rise in ecosystem investments amid intensifying competition.

Adjusted net profit for Q4 is expected to show a loss of RMB 1.0–1.5 billion, following the RMB 16 billion loss recorded in Q3.

If subsidy pressure persists, gross margin could dip below 15%, potentially delaying the profitability recovery timeline.

Core Business Breakdown

Food delivery remains resilient, holding over 60% market share with strong user stickiness — though price competition is squeezing margins to historic lows.

Flash Purchase & on-demand retail are scaling fast, hitting 20 million daily orders and surpassing 500 million transacting users, positioning it as a key growth driver.

New businesses have narrowed losses to under RMB 1 billion. Keeta's overseas expansion and supermarket global expansion show long-term promise, though they remain a near-term drag.

Bull vs. Bear

Bear case: Intense competition (e.g., aggressive subsidies from Douyin) is eroding core profitability — a trend that looks hard to reverse. The stock is already down 22%, wiping out billions in market cap. Caution advised near term.

Bull case: Meituan's moat remains intact — 800 million users, strong logistics network, and algorithm advantage. Flash Purchase penetration plus overseas expansion could unlock long-term value. A re-rating may follow once the competitive landscape stabilizes.

My Play

As a Hong Kong trader, I'm staying neutral for now. I'll look to build long positions in batches after Q4 results confirm a bottom in losses, with a stop at HKD 75.

For those trading options (US/HK listed), selling out-of-the-money puts (strike HKD 70) could be a way to collect premium — targeting 5–8% returns, with position size capped at 10% of the portfolio for risk control.