
In today’s pre-mkt summary: Stocks rose as Brent crude fell -6% to $99/bbl after President Trump unveiled a 15-point plan to ending the Iran conflict, easing fears of higher inflation and potential Fed policy tightening. 10-year TYs fell while precious metals and #bitcoin gained. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) rebounded 1.6% pre-mkt to $178, and $Tesla(TSLA.US) rose +1.9% to $390 as various media outlets speculated the SpaceX IPO could be filed as early as this week. We continue to see equities reclaiming new highs once the Middle East conflict ends, oil prices retreat and employment growth slows, increasing odds of quicker Fed rate cuts. Analysts are forecasting 2026 S&P 500 earnings of $310 (+13% YoY) which implies an S&P 500 2026 P/E of 21.1x equal to a 4.7% earnings yield and a ~40bp premium to 10-year treasury yields, in line with historic spreads in non-recessionary periods. While we put high odds on a SpaceX IPO before June 30, we don’t see how a SpaceX IPO boosts TSLA valuation in a material way. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) as 2026-2030 earnings estimates continue to decline and as investors realize that other manufacturers beside TSLA will solve for unsupervised autonomy over the next 12-18 months. We have no position in TSLA due to its extended valuation (2026 P/E ~200x vs +40% LT growth, 5x PEG).
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