🎯 Intel Earnings Preview: What to Watch Tomorrow
$Intel(INTC.US) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings after the bell on Thursday, January 22nd. Here’s what the community is talking about and what to listen for on the call:
1. The Bottom Line & Guide
Analyst consensus is for EPS of $2.93 on revenue of $15.4B. A beat could lift spirits, but all eyes will be on Q1 2026 guidance. Recent quarters have shown a pattern of strong results followed by soft guidance, which has weighed heavily on the stock. Any mention of demand softness, tariffs, or competitive pressures will be key.
2. AI PC: Is the Momentum Real?
Intel is betting big on the AI PC refresh cycle. Listen for:
- Adoption Rates: Management previously targeted 40M+ AI PC shipments in 2024. An update on 2025 progress and 2026 outlook is crucial.
- Panther Lake Impact: The first AI PC platform on Intel's advanced 18A process launched at CES 2026. Commentary on initial customer demand, yield rates, and performance feedback will signal if this "strategic inflection point" is translating to sales.
3. Data Center & AI (Gaudi) – The Crucial Battlefield
This remains Intel's toughest challenge. Focus on:
- Gaudi 3 Momentum: After missing its 2024 revenue target, investors need concrete evidence of design wins, shipments, and bookings growth. Updates on the new rack-scale reference design will be important.
- The Roadmap Clarity: With "Falcon Shores" canceled and the future "Jaguar Shores" project targeting 2026, clarity on the path to competing with NVIDIA/AMD is essential.
- DC GPU Update: Any color on the new inference-optimized "Crescent Island" GPU, sampling in late 2026.
4. Foundry & Manufacturing – The Long Game
- 18A Process Proof: Intel "over-delivered" by shipping first 18A products in late 2025. The call should provide updates on yield improvements, capacity ramp, and external customer commitments for its foundry services (IFS).
5. Financial Discipline & Margins
New CEO Lip-Bu Tan is intensely focused on financial discipline. Listen for:
- Cost Control: Reaffirmation of the 2025 OpEx target (~$17.5B) and the 2026 goal of ~$16B.
- The 50% Margin "Rule": Last year, Intel stated it wouldn't advance projects without a path to 50% gross margin. How is this stringent filter impacting the product roadmap and turnaround timeline?
Bottom Line: The stock reaction will hinge less on Q4's past results and more on 2026 guidance, tangible AI progress, and evidence that financial discipline is driving a real turnaround.
💬 Let's Talk Intel Earnings!
- What's your biggest focus for this report: AI PC momentum, Gaudi demand, or foundry progress?
- Will you be trading $Intel(INTC.US) into earnings, or waiting for the dust to settle?
- Post-report, are you generally bullish or bearish on semis for Q1?
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