Walter Bloomberg
2025.10.23 13:51

MARKETS EYE SEPTEMBER CPI, VOLATILITY LIKELY

U.S. September CPI data drops Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, with expectations:

•Headline CPI: +0.4% MoM, +2.9% YoY

•Core CPI: +0.3% MoM, +3.1% YoY (excludes food & energy)

JPMorgan outlines how the S&P 500 could react:

• 0.25–0.3% core CPI: +0.75–1.25% gain (25% chance)

• 0.3–0.35%: flat to +0.5% (35%)

• 0.35–0.4%: -0.5–1.25% (30%)

• >0.4%: -1.5–2.25% (5%)

• <0.25%: +1–1.5% (5%)

Markets are pricing in a 25bps Fed cut next week, though a hawkish core reading could hint inflation hasn’t peaked. An inline to slightly hawkish print is seen as most likely.

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