Gary Black Tracker
2025.10.23 08:31

$Tesla(TSLA.US) 3Q conference call was long on promise and short on specifics. Main points:

1/ Safety drivers likely to be removed from robotaxis in Austin by year-end. No mention about removal of safety monitors from robotaxis in San Francisco Bay area.

2/ Elon walked back the planned robotaxi expansion from addressing 50% of the U.S. population to 8-10 metro areas by year-end.

3/ Elon doubled down on his view that Cybercab won’t have a steering wheel or pedals and will start production in 2026/2Q.

4/ Elon expressed 100% confidence that TSLA will solve unsupervised autonomy at a safety level much greater than a human. He didn’t put a timestamp on the initiative and didn’t address competitors’ progress toward the same unsupervised autonomous goals.

5/ On Optimus V3, Elon promised a production intent prototype ready to show off by Feb-March 2026. TSLA is targeting a 1 million unit production line with hopefully a production start by the end of 2026. Steady state Optimus production could be 10 million units/year.

6/ Elon urged investors to vote for the management proposals at the Nov 6 shareholder meeting, and singled out the proxy solicitation firms as corporate terrorists who could wreak widespread damage if their voting recommendations were followed.

In general, Elon’s comments seemed geared more toward engineers than investors. The technical jargon and buzzwords did little to instill confidence - hence the stock price kept falling during most of the call. In my opinion, TSLA mgmt should have spent more time discussing progress along their major strategic initiatives, early consumer response to the new more affordable vehicles, Tesla’s unique competitive advantages, and industry demand trends.

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