While ASML says bookings are not a good proxy for next year revenue, there are some trends. 2026 revenue is probably locked by bookings from mid 2024 to mid 2025 and plus some carry overs. With lead time of 12-18 months, 6Q lag between revenue and bookings have better correlation than 4Q lag. Recent quarter trends point to a narrowed gap between 6 quarter and 4 quarter lag, meaning shorter order to revenue.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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