Gary Black Tracker
2025.10.18 00:32

Here is $Tesla(TSLA.US) 3Q IR-compiled consensus for next Wed 10/22 earnings. While Elon has every incentive to be as bullish as possible in front of the 11/6 Annual Meeting, WS consensus Adj EPS of $.59 has been marked up considerably from the $.49 consensus on 9/30 before the big 3Q delivery beat. That said, there are many levers TSLA can use to manufacture an earnings beat (Reg credit sales, SG&A, Other inc./exp., tax rate) if TSLA wants to. Elon’s forward comments on timing of removal of safety monitors and expansion of robotaxi to other states can also boost the stock and cement support for approval of Elon’s new comp package. We believe odds are very high (70%-75%) for approval of Elon’s new comp plan.

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