This is what I posted to my subscribers at 5am CT

This is what I posted to my subscribers at 5am CT today.

Subscribers only - Wed Oct 15 pre-mkt: Global stocks rallied (SPX +0.5%, NDX +0.7%) as strong earnings from ASML and banks and optimism about Fed interest-rate cuts reignited risk appetite. 10yrTY 4.01% -1.9bp. #btc $113.0K +0.1%. Gold futures +1.7% to $4,234/oz. Brent crude -0.1% to $62.3/bbl. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) +2.2% pre-mkt to $184 after falling -4.4% yesterday. $Tesla(TSLA.US) +1.4% to $435 after falling -1.5% yesterday. $ASML(ASML.US) Holding NV +3.3% pre-mkt after posting stronger-than-expected third quarter orders and said 2026 sales would be at least on par with 2025, as artificial intelligence fueled demand for its chip-making machines. $LVMH shares surged +13% after the luxury goods manufacturer unexpectedly returned to sales growth in the 3Q, suggesting a slump in luxury demand is easing. $Papa Johns(PZZA.US) +12% pre-mkt to $54 on a Reuters report that Apollo Group has submitted a bid to take the pizza chain private for $64/share.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the US central bank is on track to deliver another interest-rate cut later this month, with swap contracts pricing in 2 rate cuts by the end of the year (Oct and Dec). Powell also signaled the central bank may stop shrinking its balance sheet (“quantitative tightening”) in the coming months. In his remarks prepared for the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia, the Fed chair reiterated Tuesday that “the downside risks to employment appear to have risen.” He noted that while there has been no release of government economic statistics due to the federal shutdown, “available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that both households’ perceptions of job availability and firms’ perceptions of hiring difficulty continue their downward trajectories.”

We believe the continuing tough trade rhetoric between the U.S. and China is mostly negotiating tactics on both sides, and that stocks will price in a high probability of a trade deal over the next few weeks. The S&P 500 has gained more than 30% since its April low, as initial trade concerns gave way to unrelenting optimism over artificial intelligence spending and the resumption of US interest-rate cuts. The U.S. government remained shut down for the 15th day with no resolution in sight. Consistent with past federal government shutdowns (the last one in 2019) we believe the shutdown is unlikely to impact US economic growth or financial markets.

We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given its extended valuation (2026 P/E 180x vs annual long-term earnings growth of +35%, PEG 5x) and our view that investors are too optimistic about how quickly TSLA can roll out L4/L5 unsupervised robotaxis to other states without safety monitors, which we estimate adds ~$3/mile to TSLA’s robotaxi cost. Austin and SFO Bay area remain the only two areas in which robotaxis are available with 150 robotaxis up and running. The next expected TSLA catalysts are TSLA earnings on 10/22, and the removal of safety monitors in Robotaxis, which Elon has targeted for year-end. Our 6-12 month $Tesla(TSLA.US) PT remains $310.