The central debate today is how much of the upside was driven by tax credits.
Shares of $Tesla(TSLA.US) are up 3% today (and 40% over the past month) because investors believe the delivery improvement is sustainable.In other words, those investors would say a large part of the upside was NOT driven by the tax credit (i.e., improvements in China).I believe the vast majority (90%+) of the upside was from the credit. Yes, outside of the U.S., deliveries improved meaningfully quarter over quarter because of China. But I believe that improvement would have still left deliveries down ~5% y/y, compared to -13.5% in June and -13% in March.We’ll get a better read on this on Oct 22.Source: Gene Munster
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