$Tesla(TSLA.US) reported record 3Q deliveries of 497K +7.4% YoY, as customers pulled forward EV purchases in front of the 9/30 expiration of the $7,500 EV credit. This easily beat 3Q WS consensus of 443K and our estimate of 470K.
Through 3Q, year-to-date TSLA deliveries were -6% YoY. We expect 4Q TSLA deliveries to slide -13%, and FY’25 TSLA deliveries to total 1.65M -8% YoY. After the initial likely pop today (+3% pre-mkt), we expect $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock to retreat between now and 3Q earnings on 10/22 as investors conclude the delivery beat was largely pull forward from 4Q deliveries to get in front of the $7,500 EV credit expiration.
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