
$Tesla(TSLA.US) Delivery Final Thoughts:
Bottom line: Street’s 17% growth expectation for 2026 is more likely up 10%, which is still a measurable improvement from down 9% this year. The 15% expectation for 2027 looks too low.1. Tomorrow’s good delivery number will mostly be dismissed as one-time. (I expect +5% growth; would’ve been -5% without ~40k pull-forward from credit expiration.)2. Focus shifts immediately to 2026 delivery growth commentary on the Oct 22 call.3. Street is modeling +17% deliveries in 2026, after -9% this year.4. That 2026 number hinges on the cheaper model. Ramp starts early in the year, but real volume impact won’t hit until late 2026.Source: Gene Munster
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