WEDNESDAY SUBSCRIBERS RECAP | October 1, 2025Welco

WEDNESDAY SUBSCRIBERS RECAP | October 1, 2025

Welcome back, crew. October is here, and the markets already feel like a haunted house. September ended with billion dollar checks flying everywhere, and October is wasting no time bringing more fireworks.

Meta opened the week with a double punch: first, chasing a chip startup called Rivos, then signing a $14.2 Billion deal with CoreWeave to rent AI cloud muscle. Clearly, Zuck is not satisfied with being the app for birthday reminders, he wants Meta to own a chunk of the AI future.

Meanwhile, Nvidia just hit a jaw dropping $4.5 Trillion market cap. That’s not a company anymore, that’s an empire. And behind the scenes, Schneider Electric is quietly keeping the power on, selling the energy systems that make data centers work without bursting into flames.

Robinhood is back in the headlines for testing boundaries, this time with prediction markets abroad. Huawei is ramping its own AI chips to fill the gap left by U.S. export restrictions. OpenAI is already printing $4.3 Billion in revenue in half a year, proving AI is now big business.

Even Trump got a piece of the action, YouTube cut him a $24.5 Million settlement check over his account suspension. For Alphabet, it’s pocket change, but for Trump, it’s prime campaign ammo. And let’s not forget oil, with U.S. crude inventories down 3.7M barrels, giving energy bulls fresh reason to cheer.

So here we are: chips, cloud, politics, AI, and oil. October is starting off with one clear theme, power. Who controls it, who’s fighting for it, and who’s writing billion dollar checks just to keep a seat at the table.

Meta eyes Rivos in AI chip push

Meta is reportedly looking to acquire Rivos, a small but important AI chip startup. For most people, Rivos doesn’t ring a bell. But in silicon circles, they’re known for working with RISC V processors, an open source design that promises flexibility and lower costs.

Meta’s interest here is survival. Right now, Nvidia has the AI chip market in a chokehold, and Meta is one of the many firms paying sky high prices for GPUs. Buying Rivos would give them a foothold in custom chips, hardware optimized for their needs, cheaper in the long run, and less dependent on Nvidia’s supply chain.

Other tech giants already moved this way. Amazon has Trainium and Inferentia. Google has TPUs. Microsoft is rumored to be building its own silicon. Meta can’t be the odd one out, or it risks paying whatever Nvidia demands.

The timing matters too. Nvidia just hit $4.5 Trillion, and Meta knows they can’t let one supplier dictate their future forever. Acquiring Rivos isn’t about today’s revenue, it’s about planting seeds that could grow into independence.

MY TAKE

Meta chasing Rivos is about long term control. They know they can’t keep swiping the corporate card for Nvidia forever. This move would buy them optionality, independence, and leverage. In the AI gold rush, it’s not just about selling shovels, about owning the mine.

Meta inks $14.2 Billion deal with CoreWeave

Meta also signed a $14.2 Billion agreement with CoreWeave for AI cloud infrastructure. Yes, $14.2 Billion just to rent computing power.

CoreWeave is not AWS or Azure, but they carved a niche as the go to cloud provider for AI. Their edge? Flexible access to Nvidia GPUs at scale. For Meta, that’s a lifeline, it gives them capacity to keep training massive models while their in house chip strategy matures.

The deal also shows Meta doesn’t want to rely on direct rivals like Microsoft or Google for infrastructure. Partnering with CoreWeave avoids awkward entanglements while still tapping world class compute.

Of course, this reinforces Nvidia’s dominance. CoreWeave is basically a middleman, buying Nvidia’s GPUs, renting them out to Meta, and pocketing the spread. Everyone wins… except Meta’s balance sheet.

The challenge is sustainability. Renting power at this scale isn’t a forever solution. That’s why Meta is pursuing Rivos in parallel. CoreWeave is the bridge, but Meta ultimately wants its own highway.

MY TAKE

The CoreWeave deal buys Meta time. It’s expensive, but falling behind in AI would cost even more. Short term, CoreWeave and Nvidia cash in. Long term, Meta still needs independence. Renting servers might work today, but you can’t build an empire on someone else’s hardware forever.

Nvidia’s market cap tops $4.5 Trillion

Nvidia has crossed into territory usually reserved for entire countries. At $4.5 Trillion, it’s bigger than the GDP of Germany.

The reason is simple: Nvidia owns the picks and shovels of the AI boom. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google are lined up like kids outside a sneaker store, and there are never enough GPUs to go around. Scarcity plus demand equals sky high valuation.

Yes, there are cracks. U.S. export restrictions cut off sales to China, rivals are designing their own silicon, and eventually margins may come under fire. But in the near term, Nvidia is untouchable. They set prices, control supply, and move entire markets with one earnings call.

MY TAKE

Nvidia at $4.5 Trillion is the market telling us AI isn’t hype, infrastructure. The stock may be priced for perfection, but right now, Nvidia is the king of kings. Everyone else is just renting space in their empire.

Schneider Electric fuels Nvidia’s growth

Here’s the overlooked piece: Nvidia’s GPUs need oceans of power and industrial grade cooling. Enter Schneider Electric, a $130 Billion energy management firm.

Schneider builds the plumbing, power systems, cooling solutions, efficiency tech, that keeps data centers running without blowing fuses. Without them, all those shiny GPUs would be expensive space heaters.

This makes Schneider a second order winner of the AI boom. Everyone talks about chips, but energy and cooling are just as critical. Governments already worry about AI’s electricity appetite, and efficiency is becoming a requirement, not a nice to have.

MY TAKE

Schneider Electric reminds us that the AI economy isn’t just chips. Infrastructure players, energy, cooling, real estate, are essential. Nvidia may be the star, but Schneider keeps the stage from collapsing. Quiet winners often have the steadiest cash flows.

Robinhood explores prediction markets abroad

Robinhood is reportedly exploring prediction markets outside the U.S., basically, letting people bet on everything from elections to sports.

The move fits their brand. They thrive on gamified finance, and prediction markets are literally finance as a game. Push notifications, slick interfaces, and speculation built into the app? That’s pure Robinhood.

The risks are clear: regulators hate this stuff, and optics around “betting on democracy” are terrible. But abroad, where rules are looser, Robinhood sees opportunity.

MY TAKE

Prediction markets abroad are risky but on brand for Robinhood. If it works, it’s a new revenue stream. If it flops, it reinforces their reputation as the casino of finance. Either way, it proves Robinhood isn’t afraid to keep testing boundaries.

Huawei ramps up AI chip production in China

Huawei is scaling production of its Ascend and Kirin chips to fill the gap left by Nvidia’s absence in China. The chips aren’t as powerful, but “good enough” is still better than nothing.

This is geopolitics as much as business. The U.S. cut off advanced GPU exports, and China’s answer is simple: build their own. Domestic companies rally around Huawei, ensuring adoption and iterative improvement.

MY TAKE

Huawei isn’t catching Nvidia today, but they’re laying the foundation for independence. The message is clear: China won’t be locked out of the AI race. Even if it runs slower, Huawei will keep the ecosystem alive.

OpenAI revenue climbs to $4.3 Billion

OpenAI reported $4.3 Billion in revenue for the first half of 2025, up 16%. That’s $9 Billion annualized, bigger than many legacy software firms.

The business model is simple: ChatGPT subscriptions, enterprise deals, and developer APIs. Add Microsoft’s distribution muscle, and adoption has been lightning fast.

Margins are squeezed by compute costs, but growth shows AI isn’t hype anymore. It’s a business with real revenue and staying power.

MY TAKE

$4.3 Billion proves AI is commercial, not theoretical. OpenAI has brand dominance, and people are paying for it. Rivals are circling, but ChatGPT is still the name everyone knows.

YouTube to pay Trump $24.5 Million

YouTube settled with Trump, paying $24.5 Million over his suspension. Alphabet won’t notice the dent, but Trump gets a political talking point.

For YouTube, it’s about avoiding drawn out litigation. But it sets a precedent, if one figure gets paid for de platforming, others might try.

MY TAKE

This isn’t about the money, it’s about the message. Tech platforms are caught between free speech, politics, and private ownership. Settlements like this show how messy that balance is.

U.S. crude stockpiles drop 3.7M barrels

The latest API report showed a 3.7M barrel draw. That leans bullish for oil, hinting at tighter supply.

Inventories are the heartbeat of the oil market. When they fall, sentiment shifts fast, especially with geopolitical risks in the mix.

MY TAKE

It’s not a crisis, but it tilts the market toward higher prices. Oil isn’t going away anytime soon, and draws like this remind us it’s still the backbone of global energy.

Final Thoughts

This week’s headlines might look scattered, Meta chasing chips, Nvidia flexing, OpenAI cashing billions, YouTube settling with Trump, but zoom out and they all point to one theme: control.

Meta is hedging against Nvidia. Huawei is hedging against sanctions. Robinhood is hedging against stagnation. Even YouTube is hedging against political risk. Everyone wants leverage.

For investors, the winners aren’t always the flashiest names, they’re the ones holding the keys. Nvidia controls GPUs. OpenAI controls brand. Schneider controls infrastructure. Oil still controls global trade.

The market is rewarding dominance. Whether it’s chips, AI platforms, or energy, the players with control over bottlenecks are the ones shaping the future. Watch the levers of power, not just the noise. That’s where the money is.

Tom