A U.S. government shutdown looks increasingly likely:
Prediction markets now put the odds at 82% for a shutdown beginning October 1st, in line with Goldman’s Sachs warning.There’s one last chance for a deal when the Senate returns Sept 29, but passage of the House extension is considered unlikely.If a shutdown begins, duration is key. Each week could shave 15bps off GDP growth in the quarter, with a rebound the following quarter. A 3-week shutdown = 45bps hit.On of the biggest impacts: data delays. Both NFP and CPI would likely be pushed back, just like in 2013, when jobs data was released 5 days after government reopened, and the following release was also delayed.Markets are watching closely, this could disrupt key economic signals right when the Fed is weighing cuts.Source: StockMarket.News
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