Gary Black Tracker
2025.09.24 22:22

I’ve argued over the years that $Tesla(TSLA.US) will achieve unsupervised autonomy, but so will a handful of others. As such, a TAM x market share approach is needed to value TSLA robotaxi rather than the capacity-driven approach long favored by many here on X, which overstates TSLA’s robotaxi valuation by 3-5x.

I have also expressed my view that $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock will continue to move higher into next week’s 3Q delivery update, with my 3Q TSLA delivery est 470K vs WS est at 433K. I expect hedge funds who have piled into the 3Q delivery trade to exit after the print.

Waymo Unveils Corporate Self-Driving Taxis. The Technology Is Spreading.

Barron’s - Al Root

9/24/2025 4:33pm

Self-driving technology company Waymo announced a new autonomous driving service on Wednesday targeted at businesses. For investors, it demonstrates how far self-driving technology has come.

“Waymo for Business" touts efficiency, allowing businesses signed up for the taxi platform to integrate it into their employee workflows such as travel apps and expense reporting. The idea is for businesses to use the tool to offer rides to employees, building a recurring business travel operation that also gives employers control over where and how the offering is used.

"Nearly one in six of our local riders in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix rely on Waymo to commute to work or school, making it an integral part of their daily routine," Waymo said. "This includes all types of schedules from early morning rush to students, shift workers, and healthcare staff who need a trusted ride home late at night. With Waymo for Business, we're bringing that same 24/7 reliability and convenience directly to organizations."

Waymo now completes more than one million fully autonomous cab rides a month, operating in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta through Uber. The company plans to add Miami next year and is testing in New York and Las Vegas. It recently announced a partnership with Lyft to enter the Nashville market.

Service expansions and new products for businesses are another example of how autonomous driving technology is expanding, relatively rapidly, in the U.S.

Tesla launched a self-driving robo-taxi operation in Austin, Texas, in June. CEO Elon Musk hopes to have Tesla robo-taxis covering half of the U.S. population by the end of 2025. That, however, will require technology improvements and regulatory approvals. Amazon-owned Zoox started offering free autonomous rides in Las Vegas earlier in September. And AI-chip maker Nvidia is backing autonomous driving startup Wayve.

Self-driving cars are here to stay, with big tech firms leading the way. More Americans will realize that soon, possibly because of their jobs.

Shares of Waymo parent Alphabet were down 1.8% on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Shares of Amazon were down 0.2%. Tesla stock was up nearly 4% at $442.79.

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