CoreWeave’s $6.3 Billion NVIDIA Deal: Huge Opportunity or Bubble？
$Coreweave(CRWV.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) So, some pretty wild news dropped on September 15, 2025—CoreWeave (CRWV) announced a massive $6.3 billion agreement with NVIDIA, and the stock absolutely took off. I wanted to dig into what’s actually going on here, because the story is a lot more complicated than just “stock go up.”
What’s the Deal?
Basically, CoreWeave signed a deal on September 9th where NVIDIA agreed to buy any of CoreWeave’s unused cloud computing capacity through April 2032. That’s a huge safety net for CoreWeave’s revenue—no matter what, they’re not stuck with empty data centers. It’s also worth mentioning that NVIDIA owns 6.6% of CoreWeave and is their main GPU supplier. After the news, CRWV popped 8% to $120.91, and the market cap hit $62 billion. For context, the stock is up over 200% since its IPO in March.
Why Bulls Are Excited
People who are bullish see this as NVIDIA basically giving CoreWeave a stamp of approval. It solves the big question of “can they actually fill all that capacity?” and positions them as a key player in AI infrastructure. The growth numbers are insane—Q1 2025 revenue was up 420% YoY to almost $1 billion.
But… There’s a Bear Case
On the same day as the NVIDIA news, Kerrisdale Capital dropped a brutal short report and said they’re betting against CoreWeave, with a price target of just $10 (that’s a 90% drop from here). Their main arguments:
- Customer Concentration: Microsoft is 70% of CoreWeave’s revenue, and apparently they just passed on expanding their deal.
- Financials Are Ugly: CoreWeave is burning cash like crazy—Kerrisdale estimates $19 billion in 2025 alone. Debt could hit $40 billion by 2028, and right now, they don’t even make enough to cover interest payments.
- No Real Moat: Kerrisdale says CoreWeave is just renting out GPUs, with no proprietary tech, and faces big competition from hyperscalers who can build their own stuff.
My Take
This feels like a classic “growth vs. fundamentals” situation. The NVIDIA deal is a big win for revenue visibility and definitely drives hype. But the underlying business model is super capital-intensive, and the financials are kind of scary. The current valuation seems way ahead of where the actual fundamentals are.
Right now, everyone’s focused on the NVIDIA partnership and the AI boom, which is pushing the stock higher. But long-term, I think investors need to keep an eye on the debt, cash burn, and whether CoreWeave can diversify beyond Microsoft. The $6.3 billion deal is great, but it doesn’t magically fix all the risks.
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