China is about to start the new U.S. soybean export season without buying a single shipment for 2025–26. That’s a big deal because in past years, China usually locked in American beans early to feed its massive demand for pork and chicken, which rely on soybean meal. But after China put tariffs on U.S. soybeans in March, American supplies became more expensive and turned into a bargaining tool in trade talks. Instead, China has stocked up on Brazilian beans and dipped into its own reserves, giving it time to wait before making any U.S. purchases.
The choice shows how much China now relies on Brazil. Brazil still has more than 37 million tons of soybeans left from its last harvest, which can cover demand for now. But later in the year, shipments from South America will slow while China’s needs stay high. That creates risks if bad weather hits or if there are shipping problems. On top of that, Brazilian beans cost about 20% more than U.S. beans. Still, China seems willing to pay more while also trying to cut back on how much soy it needs by adjusting livestock feed and even testing out soymeal imports from Argentina.For U.S. farmers, the timing couldn’t be worse. China has long been their biggest customer, buying nearly a quarter of America’s soybean crop every year about $13 billion worth last year. Over the last three decades, U.S. farmers planted millions more acres of soy to meet that demand, and agribusiness companies built new infrastructure to ship it overseas. Now, with no Chinese orders on the books, farmers are facing a harvest with weaker prices and fewer buyers. Government data shows many could lose about $100 per acre, which has farm groups pushing for financial aid like the bailout they got during the last trade war.China has prepared for this standoff. It has stockpiled soybeans equal to what it normally imports from the U.S. in a year, and it’s investing heavily in Brazil’s farming infrastructure with new ports, railroads, and storage facilities. Brazil already provides 70% of China’s soy imports, up from about 35% fifteen years ago, and that number could rise even higher as Chinese companies pour in more money. Imports from Argentina and Uruguay are also growing.The bottom line: American farmers are staring at oversupply and shrinking incomes, while China is paying more but gaining control and flexibility in trade talks. The next few months will decide whether this is a short-term standoff or the start of a long-term shift that makes Brazil, not the U.S., China’s go-to soybean supplier.Source: StockMarket.News
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