I expect $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock to remain strong through the end of 3Q (9/30), as analysts scramble to raise 3Q delivery estimates (my est 470K vs consensus 432K). This should reverse in 4Q as hedge funds unwind their bullish bets geared to a 3Q delivery beat.
The bigger catalyst remains removal of robotaxi safety monitors at year-end, which if successful, would allow TSLA robotaxi to expand from 150 cars now in Austin/SFO to potentially thousands as TSLA scales up its autonomous ride hailing business. At even a 5,000 vehicle robotaxi fleet I anticipate little 2026 TSLA incremental earnings impact ($.08-$.10/share) at the $1 base fee plus $1 - $2.50/mile promo price. I don’t view the new more affordable (~$35K) TSLA model to be introduced in 4Q as a catalyst. Unless it turns out to be a new form factor sufficiently differentiated from Model Y to generate incremental volume net of cannibalization, it is likely to be a repeat of 2023-2024 when TSLA cut prices and costs and TSLA earnings ests plunged by 50%. In the long run earnings certainly matter, but for TSLA investors today further earnings cuts don’t seem to be impacting the stock price.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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