Let’s not kid ourselves: $Tesla(TSLA.US) has been strong the past few days NOT because of progress on robotaxi but because every hedge fund has come to the realization that $Tesla(TSLA.US) will crush 3Q delivery estimates in two weeks (my 3Q deliv est 470K vs WS est 432K) as a result of buyers trying to get in front of the expiring $7,500 EV credit on 9/30 as volume is pulled forward from 4Q. This will very likely reverse in 4Q, and we expect FY’25 delivs will be down -10% YoY. Year-to-date $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock is still down -2% vs S&P500 +12% and NDX +15%.
The two key investment controversies remain: 1/ Will the new more affordable TSLA model to be introduced in 4Q be a new form factor sufficiently differentiated from Model Y to generate incremental volume net of cannibalization, or will it be a repeat of 2023-2024 when TSLA cut prices and costs and TSLA earnings ests fell by 50%? 2/ Will TSLA remove safety monitors from its 150 or so robotaxis in Austin and SFO by year-end as Elon has promised, which would allow TSLA to expand its Robotaxi operations to other markets in early 2026, which would propel future earnings estimates higher? If so, TSLA likely goes higher from here, despite the likely 4Q volume reversal.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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