I don’t post as much on $Tesla(TSLA.US) other than to my Subscribers since we no longer hold a position (long or short). We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to valuation concerns but acknowledge two potential positive catalysts between now and year-end:
1/ TSLA 3Q delivs due Oct 2 should materially exceed WS consensus estimates. Our current 3Q est is 470K vs 432K consensus as buyers rush to take delivery in front of the $7,500 EV credit expiration on Sept 30. We view this expected beat as largely pull forward from 4Q but traders will pay up for a 3Q delivery beat in October and worry about 4Q delivs in January. Our FY’25 TSLA deliveries forecast is 1,605K -10% YoY and in line with consensus. 2/ If $Tesla(TSLA.US) can successfully remove the safety monitors in robotaxis in Austin and the Bay Area by year-end as Elon has predicted, that would also serve as a material positive catalyst. That should be doable since we estimate TSLA has at most 150 robotaxis in operation between the two test markets, and they can all be supervised remotely. Removal of the safety monitors from the front seats would show mgmt’s confidence that robotaxis are now safe enough to be operated without supervision, which would allow expansion of Robotaxis to other markets in early-2026.We are not convinced that launch of the more affordable scaled-down Model Y in 4Q after the $7,500 EV credit expires is a positive catalyst unless it’s a new form factor that expands TSLA TAM. We see the new more affordable model getting most of its volume from other Model Y trims.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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