Walter Bloomberg
2025.09.10 11:04

WELLS FARGO: FED TO CUT RATES FIVE TIMES BY MID-2026

Wells Fargo expects the Federal Reserve to deliver five 25-basis-point rate cuts through mid-2026. The bank projects cuts at the next three meetings, lowering rates to 3.50%–3.75% by year-end, followed by two more in March and June 2026, bringing the range to 3.00%–3.25%.

The outlook reflects a weakening labor market, with job growth averaging just 29K in August and unemployment rising to 4.3%. Inflation remains a challenge, with core PCE up 2.9% year over year, but Wells Fargo noted inflation expectations remain stable.

The bank raised U.S. recession odds to 35% in the next year but expects stronger growth later, forecasting 2.4% GDP growth in 2026 as fiscal stimulus and rate cuts take effect.

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