August non-farm payrolls stall at +22K vs +75K expected, cementing odds of Fed rate cut of 25bp on 9/17. 10yrTY 4.10% -6.2bp. Equity rally likely to continue.
As I said earlier this morning in my pre-morning summary for subscribers: Today’s U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls report and next week’s Aug CPI are the last two data points before the Fed’s Sept 17 meeting at which the Fed will provide its policy decision and quarterly interest-rate projections. Swaps markets are pricing in a 97% chance that the Fed will cut short-term rates by 25bp and now price 140 basis points of easing by the end of 2026 - an amount of easing that since the 1980s has only occurred during recessions.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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