📉 FED SEPTEMBER DECISION: MARKET VS. STREET VIEWS
According to Kalshi odds (chart below), markets see:🔸 87% chance of a 25bp cut🔸 7% for >25bp cut🔸 7% for no change💬 Investment banks are split:🔸 Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan: Expect a cut, warn Fed credibility at risk.🔸 UBS: Dovish, sees ~100 bps easing across 4 meetings.🔸 Morgan Stanley: More cautious—puts Sept cut odds at 50/50.🔸 Markets overall: Pricing ~2.5 cuts by year-end.
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