Walter Bloomberg
2025.09.03 15:44

DEUTSCHE BANK: HIGH VALUATIONS COULD WEIGH ON FUTURE RETURNS

Deutsche Bank warned that while U.S. stocks benefit from strong historical performance during non-recessionary rate-cut cycles, high valuations remain a major headwind for medium- to long-term returns. Analysts noted that over the past 150 years, periods of elevated valuations were followed by weak or negative 10-year real returns, while low valuations produced strong gains.

Today’s high market levels are largely driven by the “Mag-7” tech stocks and AI. While this could signal a new paradigm, Deutsche Bank cautioned that taking large positions now carries significant risk, unlike past bubbles. G7 markets have lower valuations but less AI exposure.

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