$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) earnings pressure points:
▶ Cutting through the noise, the key is the October guide which will be in the press release. It's a positive if they guide to "$56.5B, plus or minus 2%". The in print estimate for October is $53.4B. The Whisper is $55.5B.▶ For CY26, the Street is looking for 29% y/y growth. Two weeks ago it was 27% growth. ▶ I'm in the camp that they guide October to that $56.5B. While they won't guide for next year, I believe after tonight the Street will look for between 30-35% growth.Details:• Revenue growth perspective for October: At a $56.5B guide with two months of H20, revenue will be up 61% y/y.If you add back the third month of H20 (August), that implies up 68%.That would compare to the 79% adjust growth in July (assuming they hit the numbers and add back $8B in H20).• Numbers have come up just under $2B after the China curb announcement mid July.• There are 42 analysts, 18 of them adjusted their numbers following the curb update up by an average of $4B. • That means that while consensus calls for $53.4B in October, the whisper is closer to $55.5B.• Last quarter, adjusting for the H20 curbs, the company raised the out quarter estimates by 13% versus the Street, compared to an average guide-up of 2% over the previous three quarters.Source: Gene Munster
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