MARKET ODDS FOR THE SEPTEMBER FED MEETING HAVE SHIFTED SHARPLY.
For the first time, traders now see a higher probability of a 50bps rate cut (11%) than of no cut at all (10%), according to Kalshi data. The overwhelming favorite remains a 25bps cut at 81%, but the balance between “no change” and “larger cut” is flipping — suggesting some are starting to price in more aggressive easing
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