Gary Black Tracker
2025.08.12 20:47

$Cava(CAVA.US) (no position) -21% AH after missing 2Q estimates and cutting its FY same store sales forecast. The company blamed the miss on “ongoing uncertainty among consumers”, echoing what both $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG.US) and $Sweetgreen(SG.US) said after posting disappointing results.

2Q:

- SSS +2.1% vs +6.4% est

- Revs $280.6M vs $285.6M est

- Adj EBITDA $42.1M vs $40M est

FY’25 guide:

- SSS +4-6%, saw +6-8%, est +7.2%

- New store openings 68-70 saw 64-68

- Adj EBITDA $152-$159M vs $158.1M (no change)

At 2025 P/E of 147x, the miss will get amplified by both the likely decline in FY’25 estimates and a downward re-rating of the multiple.

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