$Tesla(TSLA.US) 2Q earnings are due next Wed 7/23. 4 of the past 5 TSLA earnings releases have been met with positive surprise - not because of great numbers (earnings have pretty much sucked - see below) but because of management’s upbeat commentary about unsupervised autonomy. This quarter is likely to be no different with Elon likely to talk up the Austin robotaxi experience and serve up likely expansion to Arizona and California “regulators permitting.” The one downer may be an announcement about the new more affordable model, which is likely to be a stripped down version of Model Y, which absent a new form factor is unlikely to expand TAM. Still, we expect a positive stock reaction in keeping with past recent earnings calls.