Gary Black Tracker
2025.07.17 21:45

$Uber Tech(UBER.US) continues to outperform $Tesla(TSLA.US) (YTD $Uber Tech(UBER.US) +51%, TSLA -21%) as the race for autonomy heats up. The investment thesis for $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is that UBER benefits most as autonomous tech advances since it allows UBER to eliminate the cost of a driver from the cost of ridership, which could lower the price by half and significantly expand TAM. For $Tesla(TSLA.US), mastering unsupervised autonomy could allow it to expand its robotaxi fleet, which given vertical integration and mnfg scale allow it to undercut the cost of every other ride hailing competitor if it can get to 99.99% efficacy (one critical disengagement per 10K miles, or once per year). Since TSLA robotaxis in Austin still operate with safety drivers, investors are skeptical. Since the 6/22 Austin robotaxi launch, $Uber Tech(UBER.US) +8% vs $Tesla(TSLA.US) -5%.

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