$Tesla(TSLA.US) Summary - 7/15/2025
Positive Catalysts:1/ Trump streamlines federal process allowing TSLA to secure general unsupervised autonomy license nationally 2/ FSD licensing deal with 1 or more OEMs3/ TSLA removes safety drivers from robotaxis, expands to states outside TX as critical disengagements fall to one per 10,000 miles by FY’25 YE. 4/ DE Supreme Court overturns Chancellor McCormick’s 2018 comp ruling late-20255/ Cybercab production begins early-20266/ Optimus production begins late-2026Negative Catalysts:1/ Trump admin restricts state efforts to control carbon emissions, which could significantly reduce TSLA ZEV sales.2/ TSLA fails to introduce new cheaper form factor in 2025/1H, and instead cuts prices and costs similar to 2023-20243/ TSLA issues 12-15% new equity to acquire xAI under TSLA corporate umbrella. Requires TSLA shareholder approval. 4/ FY’25 and FY’26 EPS ests continue to fall (-43% and -32% respectively YTD) as FY’25 and FY’26 delivery ests continue to slide (FY’25 -20% and FY’26 -22% YTD).5/ TSLA 2025 P/E of 170x too high relative to FY’25-‘30 EPS growth of +25% CGR. Avg forward P/E past 3 years 80x.$Tesla(TSLA.US) 6-12 month price target $310The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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