Walter Bloomberg
2025.07.15 07:55

U.S. JUNE CPI PREVIEW: INFLATION TRENDS AND FED OUTLOOK

Goldman Sachs Forecast

- Core CPI: +0.23% m/m (below 0.3% consensus).

- Core services inflation: +0.26% m/m.

- Tariffs add +8bps, mainly in household goods, recreational/communication items.

- Outlook: Tariffs to push core inflation up in H2 2025; 3.1% YoY core CPI by December.

- Softer CPI could support 25bp Fed rate cut in September.

J.P. Morgan Forecast

- Headline CPI: +0.28% m/m; Core CPI: +0.29% m/m (highest since February).

- YoY: Headline CPI at 2.7% (4-month high); Core CPI at 3.0% (highest since February).

- Drivers: Tariff-impacted goods, rising shelter/travel prices (OER/tenants’ rent +0.3%, lodging +0.3%, airfares +0.8%).

- Fed likely to hold rates, monitoring tariffs and inflation expectations.

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