In 2021-2023 cycle, a 5-6 quarter lag between ASML EUV revenue peak (& trough) with Lam& AMAT's combined non-China revenue held up well. ASML EUV revenue peaked in 3Q21 and then hit cyclical trough in 1Q22. Lam & AMAT followed, peaking later in 4Q22 and then hitting trough in 3Q23. Ignoring 2023 altogether, 2024-25 EUV peak should give an idea of next peak for Lam & AMAT. EUV is a leading signal for other equipment makers given its 12-18 month lead times.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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