Tesla's Valuation Makes No Sense… or Does It? A Look at the Bull-Bear Divide
As someone who's held (and traded) $Tesla(TSLA.US) on and off since 2019, I’ve learned one thing: this stock will never be “rational” in the traditional sense.
With a trailing P/E over 70, growth slowing in the EV segment, and competition everywhere from BYD to Hyundai, you'd think the story would be fading. But instead — it's rallying again. Why?
Let’s unpack the bull and bear case — and what the valuation might actually be pricing in.
🐂 The Bull Case: Tesla Isn’t a Car Company
Let’s get this out of the way: if you think Tesla is “just another automaker,” the valuation will never make sense to you.
The bulls argue Tesla is:
An AI platform (FSD + Dojo + inference-scale training)
An energy infrastructure player (Megapacks + Powerwall)
A software-first business (subscription-based FSD, Robotaxi network)
A humanoid robotics company (Optimus)
If even one of these bets lands, Tesla could become a trillion-dollar business in that vertical alone. That’s the upside case. A call option on multiple future markets.
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🐻 The Bear Case: Narrative Over Fundamentals
Now the bears.
They see:
EV demand softening globally, with price cuts hurting margins
Regulatory delays in FSD and Robotaxi rollout
Overpromises (remember the 2019 “1 million Robotaxis next year”?)
High dependence on Elon, whose focus is now split between multiple companies
To them, the stock is running purely on hype and Musk’s charisma. And with rising rates, AI saturation, and geopolitical tension, sentiment can turn fast.
🤔 So Who's Right? Maybe Both
Here’s my personal view: the market is trying to price in optionality. Tesla’s current P/E may look outrageous for an auto company, but not if you believe the Robotaxi model will be real by 2027.
It’s less about cash flows today and more about who’s building the most future-facing infrastructure. That’s why $Tesla(TSLA.US) trades like a mix of Apple, Uber, and NVIDIA.
The danger? If even one of these “future bets” fails hard or stalls, the premium could deflate fast.
But the opportunity? If even one succeeds, current bears may look short-sighted in hindsight.
🔍 Final Thoughts
Tesla’s valuation doesn’t “make sense” — and maybe that’s the point. It’s not a traditional story. It’s a high-volatility, high-vision company where the value lies in what could be, not just what is.
The only real question for investors is:
Do you believe Elon can deliver on even half of what he’s promising?
If yes, the stock is still cheap.
If no, you might be watching a slow-motion hype bubble.
Curious what everyone thinks. Are we too optimistic on what Tesla can become, or are we still underestimating the scale of their vision?
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