$Tesla(TSLA.US) ‘s next catalyst is 2Q deliveries next Wed July 2. We now forecast 2Q delivs of 375K -16% YoY vs WS consensus of 397K -11% YoY. This YoY decline would be worse than 1Q delivs of 337K -13% YoY reported on April 2.
While many investors argue that EV deliveries no longer matter, given the importance and scale-up of Robotaxi, we now see FY’25 TSLA volumes declining -10% YoY to 1,610K (WS est 1,676K -6% YoY), which will likely lead to further negative EPS revisions (FY’25 adj EPS now $1.88, -42% YTD). We expect the launch of a less expensive Tesla in 3Q to be a lower-cost trim of the existing Model Y rather than a new form factor (e.g., hatchback), which we expect will add little or no incremental volume.
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