MUTED OIL REACTION SUGGESTS HORMUZ BLOCKADE UNLIKELY
Oil prices rose only slightly after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, reflecting market belief that a Strait of Hormuz blockade is unlikely.Brent and WTI crude rose about 1%, with analysts calling the limited reaction “surprising.” Despite Iran’s threats, experts say Tehran is unlikely to block the strait due to its heavy reliance on oil exports to China.Goldman Sachs and others highlight strong U.S. and Chinese incentives to avoid major disruptions. The strikes are seen as a one-time event, with no sign of wider U.S. military involvement.Alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE could reroute some oil, though not all, and they remain vulnerable to attacks.Overall, high global oil inventories and increased OPEC+ production suggest any price spikes would be short-lived—similar to past regional conflicts.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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