The $Tesla(TSLA.US) debate is not about Tesla robotaxi vs Waymo or Zoox, or whether TSLA robotaxi will work at 99.99% efficacy. Of course it will work or Elon wouldn’t be moving forward with the Austin robotaxi launch today.
The question - which bulls painfully avoid - is when others master general unsupervised autonomy (I have long said autonomy is table stakes for all automobile mnfrs) what valuation will be attached to TSLA autonomy when it has to split the autonomous ride hailing market with others? $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Pony AI(PONY.US), $BYD Company(BYDDY.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) are not going away. Very few bulls put much thought into the valuation question. “Tesla will have, I don’t know,” Elon Musk mused in a recent conference call with investors, ” 99% market share or something ridiculous.” Really?This is the same argument I made to TSLA bulls in 2021 when everyone told me TSLA would be producing 20M EVs per year by 2030, equal to a 25% overall share (current 2030 WS est 3.7M, 4.6% share) and I made similar arguments about competition, and was told $Tesla(TSLA.US) had no competition. History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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