Trump Fuels Panic, Tesla Drags Again?

Last Night's Hot Takes:

Last night, Trump was at it again. In the early trading hours, he fired off a series of posts: "The US has complete air superiority over Iran," "Iran cannot compare to US equipment," "No country compares to the great USA." Market fears of escalating military conflict surged, sending oil futures straight up. Less than half an hour later, Trump posted again: "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding," "Our patience is wearing thin." This level of tough talk further fueled panic, and the three major indices collectively plunged. As predicted yesterday, the tension won't ease quickly; it's maximum pressure aimed at negotiation, so expect more back-and-forth.

The second item is stablecoin regulation. The House passed the GENIUS Act, a crucial step for the US in stablecoin oversight. It will now head to the Senate for review in the coming weeks. After the news broke, CRCL initially jumped over 5% in after-hours trading but ultimately closed down. This market reaction is quite telling, confirming my earlier view: much of the positive impact from this regulatory framework landing has already been priced in by the market. The bill still needs to pass the Senate, where many crypto-skeptic lawmakers (like Elizabeth Warren's faction) sit, so there are still variables. Plus, rising compliance costs from new regulations will put significant pressure on smaller stablecoin issuers, potentially leading to industry consolidation. Therefore, for assets like CRCL, chasing highs now makes little sense; holders might consider trimming positions on emotional bounces, and those not yet in should wait for clearer Senate vote results.

Third, Tesla. Its stock dropped nearly 4%, immediately following news that the company will halt Cybertruck and Model Y production at its Austin plant for a week, starting June 30, officially for "production line maintenance." The key, though, is that this is the third shutdown at the Austin plant in the past year. Looking at the context, there was a halt in late May due to weak demand and high inventory. Cybertruck sales are far below expectations, with 2025 sales forecast to be almost halved, and even price cuts plus tax credit incentives have had limited effect. More troubling is that Tesla's Q1 deliveries already plummeted by 13%, and the market widely expects Q2 to be even worse.

Strategy:

Gold: This brings us back to "buy gold in turbulent times." I've been positioned in gold since before the tariffs, and I remain bullish long-term. However, my short-term stance is unchanged: it's too high for now. I suggest staying on the sidelines. If we see Israel launching substantial, large-scale... then it's not too late to consider entering.

Tesla: Short-term fundamental pressure is back. As I mentioned the day before yesterday, it's technically pressured by the previous high of 332 and the 20-day moving average. It indeed failed to break that resistance and pulled back. Patience is needed for bottom-fishing!

Oil & Related: For the oil sector itself, the geopolitical risk premium has already been quickly priced into the current price. Those with long oil positions can continue to hold, but chasing highs now offers an unfavorable risk-reward. I suggest setting a tight stop-loss to protect profits. On the other hand, soaring oil prices could put cost pressure on aerospace stocks, and geopolitical tensions also dampen travel demand expectations.$Tesla(TSLA.US)