Gary Black Tracker
2025.06.12 19:40

Air India Flight 171, bound from India to London, crashed today, killing 241 people, with at least one survivor. The crash is casting a pall over $Boeing(BA.US) ‘s (-4.7% today) 787 Dreamliner aircraft involved, the most advanced of all BA commercial planes. Since its introduction in 2011, BA has delivered 1,200 787s, and never been involved in a fatal crash.

We put low risk on the customer backlog of 889 BA 787s disappearing, or grounding of the 787 fleet because of this incident. One educated guess is that the 787 was brought down by a large flock of geese that flew into the engine compartment, shutting down both engines. Another potential cause was pilot error — specifically that the wing flaps appeared to be in a relatively retracted position, which is not typical for takeoff as flaps are usually extended to provide lift. The crash occurred during India’s monsoon season, which can create hazardous flying conditions. However, no specific weather-related issues, such as severe turbulence or wind shear, were reported as primary factors in initial accounts.

Assuming the crash is not a mechanical or safety issue, $Boeing(BA.US) should recover in the days and weeks ahead.

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