Tariffs changed again? I'm increasingly unable to understand this trade 'game of house'.

Recently, news about "tariffs" has been flooding the screen again. To be honest, I haven't felt so strongly in a long time that policy uncertainty could directly affect my life and judgment. On May 30, a U.S. federal appeals court suddenly reinstated most of the Trump-era tariffs on China; on the same day, Trump himself publicly stated that China had "completely violated the trade agreement" and sarcastically mentioned the so-called "only bought corn tortillas." These remarks directly triggered a sharp market reaction: all three major U.S. stock index futures fell, while spot gold and the U.S. dollar index also declined. Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. were also dragged down, with notable drops in companies like Pinduoduo and JD.com. Asian markets were similarly affected, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices falling by 1.4% and the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.5%. This series of reactions is no longer just diplomatic rhetoric but real policy implementation and capital feedback.

Some say this has little to do with ordinary people, but the reality is that whether you follow economic news or not, such policy changes are permeating daily life in very concrete ways. Delays in logistics, rising costs for overseas shopping, and price fluctuations in electronics and daily consumer goods are not isolated phenomena but direct impacts transmitted from international competition. Since the second half of 2024, shipping costs and delivery times on cross-border e-commerce platforms have frequently fluctuated, with some imported brands even choosing to temporarily exit the Chinese market. The resurgence of these tariff policies is likely to exacerbate similar situations again.

Looking at the feedback from the corporate side, those in foreign trade are no strangers to the uncertainty of "sudden policy changes." A friend in the export business put it bluntly: the hardest part isn't competition but "not knowing whether shipments can proceed, how tariffs will be calculated, or if clients will cancel orders." For small and medium-sized enterprises, months of negotiations can be overturned by a single tariff change, not to mention the fragile supply chain partnerships that were just beginning to recover. Over time, businesses stop pursuing growth and just hope to avoid being hit.

The term "corn tortilla trade" is, at its core, a political rhetoric, but it exposes a deeper issue: the erosion of trust. The U.S. side complains that China's purchases fall short of targets, while China has begun restricting exports of key strategic resources (like rare earths) as a countermeasure. This is a classic "non-cooperative game" model, where escalating actions result not in a winner but mutual damage. Global manufacturing relies on efficient and stable cooperative divisions of labor. If supply chains are constantly reshaped by geopolitical forces, the ultimate cost will be passed down to consumers layer by layer.

The market today isn't incapable of handling volatility but increasingly lacks consistent expectations. If the 2020 pandemic taught us anything, it's that "uncertainty" might be the most expensive variable. And this uncertainty is no longer just a risk for large corporations to hedge against—it has entered the decision-making radius of ordinary people. Investments, phone upgrades, travel abroad, side hustles, and even whether to stock up on goods can all be affected.

I'm not being pessimistic; I just hope this back-and-forth policy cycle can slow down, providing certainty for businesses, stability for markets, and judgment space for individuals. International competition is inevitable, but the primary cost shouldn't be borne by those at the bottom or ordinary lives.