Gary Black Tracker
2025.05.23 18:58

We continue to view $On Holding AG(ONON.US) as the best way to play the fitness lifestyle trend. Both $Deckers Outdoor(DECK.US) (+6.4% YoY rev growth in 1Q vs +17.1% YoY rev growth in 4Q) and $NIKE (-9.3% YoY in 1Q vs -7.7% YoY in 4Q) appear to be losing considerable share to $On Holding AG(ONON.US) (+43.0% YoY in 1Q vs +35.7% YoY in 4Q). Decker’s DTC growth in particular is slowing quickly (-1.2% YoY in 1Q vs +17.8% YoY in 4Q) as the HOKA brand continues to lose momentum (+10% YoY rev growth in 1Q vs +24% YoY rev growth in 4Q). $On Holding AG(ONON.US) meanwhile actually showed acceleration in DTC growth this quarter (+45.4% YoY in 1Q vs +43.4% in 4Q). We believe DTC growth offers a clearer picture of current demand since it excludes inventory stocking or de-stocking.

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